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严打捂盘如何影响楼市走势 (2007/10/28 23:23:49) [发送到微博]
严打捂盘如何影响楼市走势

 

自今年二季度以来,和全国其它诸多大城市一样,上海房价经历了一波快速上涨。导致这一结果的因素是多方面的,其中供不应求是关键。从需求上分析,2005和2006年上海自住需求受到抑制,今年以来合理释放,另外还有股市回流资金,流动性过剩等因素;从供应上分析,去年新增住宅用地过少,而且由于“70/90”政策导致2300万平米的住宅项目延迟工期,还有就是突出的囤地捂盘行为也加剧了房荒。

 

从国土资源部的角度看,整顿囤地行动已持续三四年,但效果并不明显。比如,最重要的一条规定:一年不开工罚款、二年不开工无偿收回——事实证明如同一纸空文,根本无法约束地方政府,当然也对部分专违反规定的开发商无能为力。而打击捂盘,是近两年的事,尤其去年三部委联手整顿市场秩序,到今年升级为八部委共同开展为期一年的市场整治行动,对此尤其为重视。但各地打击捂盘的态度及措施相差甚大,很多城市仍然是“雷声大,雨点小”。

 

值得关注的是,今年9月,上海出台的相关政策堪称目前国内最强硬的治理捂盘的“铁腕政策”。这份《关于进一步加强本市商品房销售监管工作的通知》自9月1日开始施行。主要内容是:一是3万平米以下的预售面积须一次全部申请预售,超过3万平方米,每次申请预售面积不得少于3万平方米,3个月内应当全部申请完毕;二是批准预售后3~10个工作日内必须对外开盘销售;三是对于已经达到预售标准的楼盘,如果没有按时申请预售,将下发“行政告知书”,对于被确定为捂盘惜售的开发商,则将遭到经济处罚、资质降级、直至吊销营业执照等。

 

与其它城市的相关政策相比,上海出台的这一规定算得上手段狠辣。这就意味着,开发商必然要把已达到预售标准的房源推向市场,而且不能像以前那样一次只推几十套房源,通过“小幅推盘,快速涨价”而获取暴利。而事实确也证明,这一新政效果初现。

 

为了使分析更具针对性,笔者在此聚焦于商品住宅(不包括动迁配套住宅)市场态势。从商品住宅供应上分析,今年以来新增供应量一直偏低,6月为139.78万平方米,7月为98.96万平方米, 8月为116.18万平方米,然而,9月却猛增至194.36万平方米,环比8月剧增67.3%。9月,共有19个住宅项目的推盘量达到“3万平方米”标准,而8月则仅有5个项目推盘量在3万平方米以上。新政“药力”开始显现。

 

读者朋友们最关心的是,供应量增加之后,房价走势如何。不妨再分析一下商品住宅的成交情况:6月约266万平方米,7月约216万平方米,8月约216万平方米,商品住宅成交约217万平方米,规律性很明显,6月达到今年高峰,其后三个月成交量非常稳定。而供应量却在明显增加,那么供求关系正由严重的供不应求,向供求平衡方向转变,9月份供求比已缩小到1:1.12。其结果是,接下来几个月,上海住宅价格不会大跌,因为目前全市目前住宅可售量跌破600万平米,房荒仍未完全解除;但涨势将转弱,甚至不排降除步入盘整的可能性。

 

今年国庆季房展会,预售商品房仅为706套,与去年的1298套房屋相比,降幅达45.6%,也是一种楼市降温的征兆。值得关注的是,“上有政策,下有对策”,有些开发商已经行动起来,比如大幅提高售价,吓退购房者,以达到短期捂盘的效果。消费者一定要理性对待这种情况,不宜盲目追高,而开发商的这种行为也是一种赌博,高回报与高风险同在。

 

 

How to strike hard disc impact on the property market trend
 

Since the second quarter of this year, and many of the other major cities like Shanghai has experienced wave of rapid house price rose. This led to the outcome of many factors, of which demand is the key. Demand from the analysis of 2005 and 2006 Shanghai-occupied demand inhibited this year, a reasonable release, as well as the stock market return funds, excess liquidity and other factors; From the supply of new residential land last year, is too small, but because of "70/90" policy led to 23 million-ping meter residential projects delayed construction period, there is prominent tun to was also exacerbated by the acts of shortage.
From the point of view of Land and Natural Resources, rectifying tun operation has lasted three to four years, but the effects are not obvious. For example, one of the most important provisions: One year does not start penalty, do not start 2002 free recovery - Facts have proven that as a mere scrap of paper, bound by the local government can not, of course, a violation of the regulations on the part of developers powerless. Combat disc, in the last two years, particularly last year, three ministries jointly rectifying the market order in the year upgraded to eight ministries jointly launched a one-year market campaign for this particular importance. But throughout the combat disc attitude and measures vary considerably, many cities is still "all thunder and no rain."

It is noteworthy that, this year, in September, Shanghai promulgated relevant policynow the strongest domestic governance set of "iron-fist policy." This "on further strengthening the work of monitoring the city''s sales of commercial property" Circular on September 1 start implementation. The main contents are: First, is 30,000 square meters area to be below the pre-sale applications for pre-sale all at once, over 30,000 square meters, each application for pre-sale area not less than 30,000 square meters, three months all applications should be completed; The sale is approved after three to 10 working days to external open disc sales; Third, it is standard for pre-sale has reached the flats, if there is no pre-sale applications on time, the issue of the "administrative inform book," The identified as set the developers, will be punished by the economy, aptitude demotion until revoke their business licenses, etc..

This means that the developer is bound to have reached pre-sale standardinto the market, but not as before, only a few dozen suites source pushed through "was pushed slightly, rapid price increases" and to reap huge profits. The facts also prove that indeed, this is the beginning of the new political effect.

In order to make analysis more focused, and the author of this focus on domestic goods (excluding relocation supporting residential) market trend. From an analysis of housing supply this year, the additional supply has been low, in June to 1.3978 million square meters, in July to 989,600 square meters, in August to 1.1618 million square meters, but September has soared to 1.9436 million square meters, the ring August surge 67.3%. In September, a total of 19 residential projects pushed disc amounted to "30,000 square meters" standard, and in August, only five projects pushed disk volume in 30,000 square meters and above. New Deal "drug and" started to become apparent.

Readers friends most concerned about is increasing the supply of, how the price movements. Further analysis may residential commodity transactions: June about 2.66 million square meters, in July about 2.16 million square meters, in August of about 2.16 million square meters of residential housing with about 2.17 million square meters, regularity, obviously, in June reached the peak of this year, three months later very stable turnover . But while supply increased significantly, then by the relationship between supply and demand is a serious shortage, the supply and demand balance to change direction, in September of supply and demand than has been reduced to 1:1.12. As a result, the next few months, Shanghai housing prices will not collapse, because the city''s current residential can below 6 million square meters, the shortage has not fully disarm; But gains will be weakened, or even zero-down in addition to the possibility of entering consolidation.

Endless home exhibitions have kept this year''s National Day quarter, only 706 sets of pre-sale housing, and the 1298 houses last year compared to a decrease of 45.6%, and is also a sign of the property market cooling. It is noteworthy that, "there are policies, the measures to counter." Some developers have action, such as substantial increase in the prices deter buyers, in order to achieve short-term disc results. Consumers must be rational treatment of this situation, not the blind pursuit of high, and the developers of such acts is also a kind of gambling, high-return and high risk the same.

 

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