How to strike hard disc impact on the property market trend
Since the second quarter of this year, and many of the other major cities like Shanghai has experienced wave of rapid house price rose. This led to the outcome of many factors, of which demand is the key. Demand from the analysis of 2005 and 2006 Shanghai-occupied demand inhibited this year, a reasonable release, as well as the stock market return funds, excess liquidity and other factors; From the supply of new residential land last year, is too small, but because of "70/90" policy led to 23 million-ping meter residential projects delayed construction period, there is prominent tun to was also exacerbated by the acts of shortage.
From the point of view of Land and Natural Resources, rectifying tun operation has lasted three to four years, but the effects are not obvious. For example, one of the most important provisions: One year does not start penalty, do not start 2002 free recovery - Facts have proven that as a mere scrap of paper, bound by the local government can not, of course, a violation of the regulations on the part of developers powerless. Combat disc, in the last two years, particularly last year, three ministries jointly rectifying the market order in the year upgraded to eight ministries jointly launched a one-year market campaign for this particular importance. But throughout the combat disc attitude and measures vary considerably, many cities is still "all thunder and no rain."
It is noteworthy that, this year, in September, Shanghai promulgated relevant policynow the strongest domestic governance set of "iron-fist policy." This "on further strengthening the work of monitoring the city''s sales of commercial property" Circular on September 1 start implementation. The main contents are: First, is 30,000 square meters area to be below the pre-sale applications for pre-sale all at once, over 30,000 square meters, each application for pre-sale area not less than 30,000 square meters, three months all applications should be completed; The sale is approved after three to 10 working days to external open disc sales; Third, it is standard for pre-sale has reached the flats, if there is no pre-sale applications on time, the issue of the "administrative inform book," The identified as set the developers, will be punished by the economy, aptitude demotion until revoke their business licenses, etc..
This means that the developer is bound to have reached pre-sale standardinto the market, but not as before, only a few dozen suites source pushed through "was pushed slightly, rapid price increases" and to reap huge profits. The facts also prove that indeed, this is the beginning of the new political effect.
In order to make analysis more focused, and the author of this focus on domestic goods (excluding relocation supporting residential) market trend. From an analysis of housing supply this year, the additional supply has been low, in June to 1.3978 million square meters, in July to 989,600 square meters, in August to 1.1618 million square meters, but September has soared to 1.9436 million square meters, the ring August surge 67.3%. In September, a total of 19 residential projects pushed disc amounted to "30,000 square meters" standard, and in August, only five projects pushed disk volume in 30,000 square meters and above. New Deal "drug and" started to become apparent.
Readers friends most concerned about is increasing the supply of, how the price movements. Further analysis may residential commodity transactions: June about 2.66 million square meters, in July about 2.16 million square meters, in August of about 2.16 million square meters of residential housing with about 2.17 million square meters, regularity, obviously, in June reached the peak of this year, three months later very stable turnover . But while supply increased significantly, then by the relationship between supply and demand is a serious shortage, the supply and demand balance to change direction, in September of supply and demand than has been reduced to 1:1.12. As a result, the next few months, Shanghai housing prices will not collapse, because the city''s current residential can below 6 million square meters, the shortage has not fully disarm; But gains will be weakened, or even zero-down in addition to the possibility of entering consolidation.
Endless home exhibitions have kept this year''s National Day quarter, only 706 sets of pre-sale housing, and the 1298 houses last year compared to a decrease of 45.6%, and is also a sign of the property market cooling. It is noteworthy that, "there are policies, the measures to counter." Some developers have action, such as substantial increase in the prices deter buyers, in order to achieve short-term disc results. Consumers must be rational treatment of this situation, not the blind pursuit of high, and the developers of such acts is also a kind of gambling, high-return and high risk the same.