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关注美国房价 (2008/7/2 15:59:54) [发送到微博]
Economy.com预言房价下降20%
 
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A rapidly deteriorating U.S. economy will cause home prices to drop by 20 percent peak-to-trough, a leading economist said on Wednesday.
纽约(路透社)一位资深经济学家在周三预言快速恶化的美国经济将导致房价由峰值至谷值跌落20%。
 
Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody''''s Economy.com, said he also expects a recession in the first half of this year.
马克赞迪,穆迪的Economy.com的总经济师及共同创始人,预言经济会在上半年衰退。
 
Zandi, speaking at the Reuters Housing Summit in New York, said this is a "significant" change from the Moody''''s Economy.com outlook published in December, which called for a 13 percent drop.
赞迪在纽约的路透社房产峰会上说,这与穆迪的Economy.com在十二月份发布的13%下跌的预测对比来说,是个“重要”的改变。
 
He expects home sales to hit bottom this spring, housing starts to reach a nadir this summer, and house prices to trough in the spring of 2009.
他预测房屋销售在这个春季触底,住房供给在夏季到达最低点,房屋价格在2009年到达谷底。
 
"Three months ago, I expected the economy to skirt a recession. Now, I expect it to suffer a recession (in the) first half of 2008," he said.
他说:“三个月前我预测经济在衰退边缘。现在我预测经济将在2008年上半年衰退。”
 
"To be more precise, the economy is contracting. It''''s been contracting for December, January and probably February," he said. "Another three, four, five months of contraction and that would be a recession."
他说:“更准确地说,经济在收缩。十二月、一月有可能包括二月一直在收缩。如果再有三至五个月的收缩的话那就是衰退。”
 
Zandi expects the Federal Reserve to slash the federal funds rate, currently at 3 percent, by another percentage point this year.
赞迪预计,美国联邦储备委员会会在今年大幅降低联邦基金利率,由目前的3个百分点,再降低一个百分点。
 
He also said the U.S. central bank "misjudged" the severity of the housing downturn and credit conditions. "They were clearly slow to respond," he said of U.S. policymakers.
他还表示,美国的中央银行“错误判断”了房产低迷及信用状况的严重性。他说,美国的决策者“明显反应迟缓”。
 
Zandi said he has been in contact with different Federal Reserve and Treasury officials.
赞迪说,他一直在接触不同的美国联邦储备委员会和美国财政部官员
 
"They now seem to be on high alert, fully engaged and thinking creatively about what they can do and what is next," he said.
他说:“他们现在似乎要保持高度警惕,充分参与并创造性地思考自己能做些什么,未来会怎样。”
 
While monetary policy has helped the housing market in terms of lower resets on adjustable-rate mortgages, it is not going to be enough to fix all the issues the sector faces.
虽然货币政策在浮动利率抵押重置较低这一点上帮助了房产市场,但它还不足以解决这个部门面对的所有问题。
 
"It is as if the pipes are broken and you can pump more water through, but it is not going to get distributed because it is going to leak out," he said.
他说:“这就像水管爆裂,虽然你可以抽走更多的水,但是水不会散开,因为要开始泄漏了。”
 
Zandi said rapidly rising foreclosures is high on his list of significant problems facing the U.S. economy.
赞迪表示,快速增长的房产收回是美国经济面临的比较重要的问题之一。
 
"The surge in foreclosures and delinquencies on mortgages is accelerating, not abating, and obviously we are at levels we have never seen before," he said. "This is a significant problem for the economy."
他说:“房产收回的加剧及拖欠抵押贷款正在加速,而非减弱,很明显我们正处于我们从未遭遇的水平上。这是经济中值得注意的一个问题。”
 
The surge in foreclosures is putting further downward pressure on the housing market because it adds to the inventory of homes for sale, which is already at a lofty level.
房产收回的激增正在加大房产市场的压力,因为这会加大已然在高位的待售房屋数量。
 
"This puts further pressure on house prices and therefore on the ability and willingness of consumers to spend," he said.
他说:“这会加大对于房价的压力并影响消费者的消费能力及消费意愿。”
 
Zandi said households that are going through foreclosures are also under tremendous pressure, having to rein in their spending very significantly. 
赞迪说正在经历房产收回的住户也承受着巨大的压力,不得不显著减少开支。
 
"They are also having a measurable impact on spending, particularly areas of the country where foreclosure problems are more serious," he said.
他说:“这些也在明显影响着支出,特别是在房产收回问题严重的地区。”
 
For each foreclosure on a street block, it reduces the value of all homes on that block by almost 1.5 percent, he said.
他表示,在每一个街区,每一处房产被收回,该街区的所有住宅的价值就会下降1.5个百分点。
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